by The party has officially begun in Glendale, Arizona. Opening night of the Super Bowl kicked things off as the media got its first crack with the star players on each team. In five days, one of those players will be voted Super Bowl LVII Most Valuable Player. Once the outcome of the game has been determined, everyone’s attention will immediately turn to who should receive the prize. We’ll start campaigning for the person sitting next to us, knowing full well that the fate of the tickets rests in the hands of people who can’t hear a word we’re saying. Every punter wants to end the night a winner and the MVP award is our last chance of the season.
Before conference championship games, I got a head start by recommending a few players at good rates. Those numbers are no longer available and will not return. However, the good news is that there are still plenty of opportunities on the BetMGM board. Let’s start with the most important position on the pitch and work our way up to the juiciest of long shots.
Should you bet on a quarterback?
Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes are exactly the same price at +135 on BetMGM, despite the Eagles being slight favorites in the game. If you like Kansas City, Mahomes makes a lot of sense. Overcoming the Eagles’ pass rush and carving out their #1 pass defense 1 on a bad ankle sounds like a good MVP story if the Chiefs get the ending right. The only concern is that he will probably rely on Travis Kelce for much of that production. I detailed why I think Kelce was a good target at +2500, and is still your best bet at +1100 for any Kansas City player not named Patrick Mahomes.
On the other hand, Jalen Hurts has more high profile players around him which makes him less attractive at this price point. His mobility is the X factor in a game where I expect the Eagles to be very successful on the field.
As you can probably see, I’m not entirely convinced that a QB takes home the award. It’s been a 60/40 split for QBs for the past 10 years, and there’s more value on a few other position players this year. If you agree, you can always bet on the field to win the prize. BetMGM currently has the QB to win at -450, with the field at +300 (25% implied odds). So keep it in your back pocket, in case you don’t feel convinced by these three Eagles players.
AJ Brown +1400
I love AJ Brown for having a monster game. I’m betting it at 35-1, but I’d still shoot at this price if I were to enter the market. Not only does Kansas City rank 31st in WR1 coverage of opponents, but it’s also likely to blitz and let its corners play press coverage. That’s just asking to be cooked against the 6-foot, 1,227-pound Brown, who’s 4.5 yards per drive against press coverage is the highest mark of any wideout since 2016. DeVonta Smith stepped up by recently, but the Chiefs defense is eighth best at limiting explosive passes and 31st best at pass defense in the middle of the field. It’s the perfect recipe for the physical Brown to beat the press coverage and play catch and run with Jalen Hurts on the cross routes. Good luck facing that man in the open field. Brown has the best chance of winning the prize over Hurts, but the player I’ll talk about next may have the best value at the current odds.
Overthinking is a bettor’s greatest enemy. Philadelphia’s most significant advantage is its offensive line against the Chiefs’ poor defense. Despite the emergence of Kenneth Gainwell late in the game, Sanders is the clear No. 1 and will be the primary beneficiary of the Eagles’ success on the field. Kansas City’s defense is 22nd in rushing allowed by the EPA and is one of the worst defenses at contacting opposing rushers before or at the line of scrimmage. Sanders will have free lanes to tear through the Chiefs defense and could easily cross the 100-yard limit as the focal point of Philadelphia’s offense. At 30 to 1, he’s the most valuable non-quarterback on the board.
Fletcher Cox +20000
Here comes the long shot. If a defender is going to win the award, you should assume Philadelphia’s pass rush will destroy Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense. The betting market has reduced Haason Reddick’s odds to +3000. If we don’t want to bet a bad number on Reddick, then who? The Chiefs’ weakest links are the tackles. The pressure will come from the limit. When Mahomes comes out of the pocket, it’s a real possibility that he’s getting into two of the best inside defensive tackles, Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave, who have combined for 20 sacks this season. Defensive players are always long shots, so keep in mind that the implied probability is 0.5% for a reason. But, if you’re determined to take a chance on a defensive player, I’d rather go lower with a player like Cox and run the risk of him stealing the show at 200 to 1.
Statistics provided by sharpfootballanalysis, trumedia, nextgenstats
